AGP Executive Report

Climate Extremes: East Africa’s iconic mountain glaciers are set to vanish within years, with Mt Kenya’s ice area shrinking 96% over 115 years and 40–60% loss recorded in the last decade. Weather & Risk: El Niño is strengthening with near-100% likelihood to persist into early 2027, raising odds of drought and extreme heat in southern Africa and heavier rain and flooding in parts of east Africa. Digital Infrastructure & Water: South African civil groups are demanding reviews and a pause on new data center approvals, citing scarce water, land and electricity and calling for transparency before expansion. BRICS & Climate Governance: At the New Delhi BRICS summit, leaders pushed resilience and climate and backed UN Security Council reform, while the New Delhi Declaration called for West Asia de-escalation and stressed local-currency trade and climate resilience. Meteorology Leadership: Nigeria’s NiMet chief Prof. Charles Anosike was elected president of ACMAD’s board of governors, aiming to strengthen climate services across Africa. Agriculture & Exports: Ghana’s 24-hour economy plan links greenhouse production to cold storage, logistics and air cargo to boost horticulture exports. Space Race: Senegal is moving ahead with homemade satellite capability, with Gaindesat-1B designed to collect environmental and climate data.

Climate Risk & Insurance: Kenya’s flood losses are hitting the books, with First Assurance paying over $1m to Sun World Safaris after the Olare Orok River burst its banks—another reminder that extreme weather is reshaping underwriting and payouts across the region. Weather Watch: South Africa’s Western Cape faces a Yellow Level 1 warning for winds and rough seas along the coast, with a cut-off low also bringing showers, hail and lightning risk. BRICS & Regional Resilience: As the 18th BRICS Summit opens in New Delhi, leaders and business delegations push “resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability,” while India’s monsoon-linked rain could disrupt travel across Delhi-NCR. Energy Transition Finance: Africa GreenCo secured an additional $11.5m investment to expand renewable power trading across southern Africa, aiming to cut emissions and strengthen regional energy security. Health & Mosquito Threats: A UK-focused study warns mosquito-borne disease risk is shifting with climate change—useful context for Africa’s malaria and dengue preparedness. Clean Energy & Industry: UAE-Germany business talks highlighted deals spanning renewables, clean energy and tech—signals of continued investment interest in climate-linked sectors.

Climate & Food Security: New research warns that a major weakening of Atlantic currents could sharply cut global food production, with knock-on effects for prices and breadbasket agriculture. Weather Watch (South Africa): SAWS issued damaging winds-and-waves warnings for parts of the Western Cape, plus thundershowers and rough seas risk. El Niño Impacts (Cocoa): Fairtrade flags strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions that could disrupt rainfall and heat patterns, threatening West African cocoa communities. Biodiversity Protection (Mozambique): Mozambique protected Mount Mabu as a community conservation area, safeguarding a “butterfly forest” with high endemism. Blue Economy (Nigeria): Nigeria-China’s aquatic products protocol promises tariff-free access and aims to turn fragmented fish production into an export-oriented, technology-linked sector. Governance & Security (AU): The AU’s counterterrorism push gets a boost through an Australia visit focused on closer strategic cooperation.

Climate & Hunger: The UN climate chief warned climate change is now an economic and security emergency, as El Niño-linked drought and flooding threaten food systems from South Sudan to wider regions. Weather Risk: WFP is pushing early action as communities face shrinking water points and failed harvests, with severe impacts expected across Africa and beyond. Clean Energy Governance: Namibia’s planning chief says green hydrogen can’t be a “development vs conservation” trade-off, pointing to Strategic Environmental and Social Assessments to guide where projects go and where they shouldn’t. Pollution & Health: A study on Sasol’s Secunda pollution highlights the deadly cost of air pollution, adding pressure for stronger enforcement and cleaner operations. BRICS & Global South: Xi Jinping is set to attend BRICS in New Delhi, with leaders framing the bloc as a platform for resilience, trade, and development for the Global South. Digital & Telecom Resilience: West Africa’s telecom operator is modernising billing and customer systems, while Agility Beyond Space and Sonema deepen satellite capacity for more resilient connectivity across Africa.

Water Security & Finance: South Africa’s Deputy Minister David Mahlobo says municipal debt to water boards is choking the water sector, with arrears reaching R23.77bn (excluding current accounts) as of 31 July 2026, urging a human-rights approach involving government, communities, business and civil society. Climate Overshoot: A new UN report warns global warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C in the next few years, with Africa facing outsized health and livelihood risks as heat, drought, floods and water stress intensify. Extreme Heat Timing: A study finds extreme heat is no longer confined to summer; events are spreading into spring and fall, making heat alerts and cooling plans harder to manage. Air Quality & Health: UN-linked reporting highlights wildfire and heatwave pollution threats to air quality gains, while a separate study links drinking very hot beverages to a three-fold higher esophageal cancer risk. Parliamentary Oversight: East African MPs call for a climate finance scorecard to track allocations and results, plus public annual climate expenditure reporting to strengthen accountability. Recycling Push: Stakeholders in Nigeria seek stronger policy enforcement to unlock recycling potential, as the country grapples with waste and environmental harm.

Climate Finance & LDCs: Qatar Fund for Development officials joined an Africa meeting in Addis Ababa on the Doha Programme for Least Developed Countries, stressing widening financing gaps, debt pressure and climate vulnerability—and the need for flexible funding to help countries build resilience and graduate. El Niño & Weather Risk: UK environment leaders urged people to store supplies as forecasts point to a major El Niño, with drought risk in parts of southern Africa and stormier conditions elsewhere. Clean Energy Momentum: A new global report argues clean electricity could trigger “positive tipping points,” accelerating progress across EVs, heat pumps and industry while cutting air pollution. Dryland Agriculture: Global Dryland Congress 2026 opens in New Delhi, bringing scientists and farmer reps to push climate-resilient farming via South-South cooperation. Local Governance & Water Losses (South Africa): A municipal decay critique highlights service failures tied to institutional rot, citing massive water and electricity losses and poor audit outcomes. Kenya Short Rains Uncertainty: Weather experts warn October short rains timing is unclear amid El Niño and other ocean-atmosphere drivers. Industrial Park (Kenya): DP World and GulfCap signed to develop the Mombasa Industrial Park SEZ, aiming to boost manufacturing and jobs near the port. Air Pollution & Health (South Africa): Reporting flags pollution impacts from Sasol’s Secunda, linking emissions to major health costs.

Climate Risk Watch: The WMO says El Niño is already established and could intensify into a very strong event by late 2026, with East Africa likely to see wetter conditions while parts of Southern Africa face higher drought risk—raising stakes for food, water and health. Southern Africa Food Security: Botswana’s planting season faces drier-than-average odds in Oct–Dec, with forecasts warning of delayed planting and crop losses if dry spells hit. Kenya Trade Tensions: African CSOs warn Kenya’s crackdown on foreign informal traders could fuel nationality-based discrimination and xenophobia across the East African Community. Nigeria Gas Flaring: Nigeria’s upstream regulator threatens to revoke unused gas flare site permits and pushes stronger local participation in offshore oil and gas to translate activity into jobs, technology and maritime investment. Urban Climate Resilience: Addis Ababa ranks among the world’s most climate-resilient major cities, with Nairobi and Johannesburg also scoring well after adaptation measures. Agriculture & Soils: Morocco and Australia plan a conservation agriculture and soil-health project aligned with Morocco’s Génération Green strategy. Plastic Waste Progress: The Alliance to End Plastic Waste reports 2025 gains toward circularity, including reduced unmanaged plastic and new funding commitments.

Climate & Health: South Africa’s Northern Cape and parts of the Western Cape face “extremely high” fire danger as heatwaves and wildfire smoke threaten air quality and raise health risks. Weather Extremes: A record-shattering El Niño is nearing, with scientists warning it could intensify global heat and disrupt rainfall patterns—raising stakes for African food and water security. Biodiversity Under Pressure: Conservationists highlight West Africa’s raptors’ peril, after a tagged osprey was shot in Ghana—showing how habitat loss, hunting and belief-based trade can hit species across entire migration routes. Clean Air & Pollution: A new report flags that more than 20 African countries failed WHO air pollution guidelines in 2025, including Senegal and Cape Verde, underscoring the clean-air gap. Food Systems & Drought: Kenya is importing milk from Uganda as prolonged dry weather cuts local production, while drought pressure also threatens regional dairy supplies. Energy Transition Finance: QNB Group and GORD signed an MoU to develop sustainable finance solutions in Qatar, including GSAS-linked green financing—an approach relevant to Africa’s climate investment push. Plastic & Recycling: South Africa’s push for recycling is in focus as rules move toward requiring 100% recycled content in plastic bags by 2027.

El Niño Drought Watch: Zimbabwe is bracing for a tougher 2026/27 rainy season, with a very strong El Niño expected to bring below-normal rainfall, dry spells and warmer conditions—prompting calls for early government preparations. Southern Africa Rainfall Warning: Namibia’s meteorological service warns of widespread below-normal rainfall and hotter-than-average temperatures, with El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely to cut moisture and raise risks for farming, livestock and water planning. Nigeria Recycling Push: Stakeholders at Cycling Lagos urged Nigeria to treat waste as an economic resource, calling for better policy enforcement, investment, long-term financing and stronger data to unlock recycling capacity. Clean-Air and Heat Risks: South Africa’s weather outlook flags hot conditions in parts of the Western and Northern Cape, alongside fog and cool-to-warm conditions elsewhere—coming as wildfires and heat waves are already linked to air quality strain. Climate Finance for Farmers: IFAD and Equity Group launched a $200m East Africa climate adaptation finance mechanism to back smallholders and rural businesses in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda.

Deforestation & Cocoa Supply Chains: Global Witness says Mondelez (Toblerone/Cadbury) is lobbying in Brussels to weaken the EU Deforestation Regulation, including meetings with key powerbrokers and a failure to disclose how much cocoa is deforestation-free. Climate & Food Security: South Africa’s farm confidence is rising, but El Niño-linked heat and dryness could still lift food prices and stress the next planting season. El Niño Weather Watch: Multiple reports flag worsening heat and storm risks across southern Africa, with Joburg and other areas on alert for severe conditions. Water & Blue Economy Finance: First Abu Dhabi Bank becomes the first MENA bank to back UN blue-economy finance principles, setting a $27.2bn water-focused target. Clean Industry in Malawi: Malawi pushes green industrialisation, aiming for environmentally sustainable manufacturing and climate-resilient growth. Recycling & Waste: A study warns Kenya is failing to tap its recycling economy, while South Africa moves toward cleaner-air and waste segregation pilots. Biodiversity & Illegal Trade: Nigeria’s vulture crisis deepens as illegal killing and trafficking push species toward extinction. Energy & Infrastructure: South Africa’s data-centre growth faces electricity and water constraints, while new automation and water-treatment integrations promise efficiency gains.

Climate Finance: Heifer International’s Climate Finance Nexus Forum in Kigali says Africa’s farmers already adopt solar irrigation and other climate tech, but financing models still don’t work for both lenders and smallholders—keeping climate money out of reach. El Niño & Heat Risks: South Africa’s Weather Service warns El Niño is established and likely to strengthen, with below-normal rains and above-normal temperatures—raising drought, health and food-price risks. Air Quality Under Fire: The UN weather agency (WMO) warns wildfires and extreme heat are worsening air quality, making it harder to meet public-health air targets. Water Security (BRICS): The New Development Bank approved $205m for water pipelines and treatment in South Africa’s North West and Limpopo to serve two million people. Gender-Responsive Adaptation: Ghana’s Nature-Based Solutions project urges women and other underrepresented groups to shape climate planning, financing and accountability. Local Climate Knowledge: On Kenya’s Mt. Elgon, Indigenous-language community radio helps residents understand climate impacts and conservation actions. Carbon & Clean Cooking: Carbon credit financing is highlighted as a major bet for expanding clean cooking across Africa.

El Niño and extreme weather: The UN and meteorologists warn a record-shattering El Niño is pushing the world into a “danger zone,” with knock-on risks for drought, flooding and severe storms across Africa. Flooding in South Africa (Gauteng): SAWS keeps Gauteng on high alert after weekend downpours and Johannesburg flooding, with severe thunderstorm warnings, hail, damaging winds and possible flight diversions. Green industry push in Zimbabwe: As unpredictable weather disrupts production and energy, Zimbabwe is betting on green industrialisation—renewables, circular economy and value addition—to build resilience. Clean cooking finance (Africa): Kenya and wider Africa are seeing momentum for cleaner stoves backed by carbon credit financing, aiming to cut household air pollution that still kills hundreds of thousands annually. Air quality and wildfire risk: The WMO flags that hotter conditions and more intense wildfires can worsen air pollution, making air-quality targets harder to meet. Biodiversity spotlight (South Sudan): UNESCO World Heritage status for Boma-Badingilo parks is expected to boost protection for migratory birds. Mining and pollution pressure (South Africa): A report links emissions from Sasol’s Secunda complex to major health impacts, renewing calls for stronger environmental enforcement. Governance and enforcement (Ghana): Commentary argues Ghana’s galamsey crisis worsened by treating it as an enforcement problem instead of a forward-looking intelligence and prevention challenge. Carbon markets and climate finance: New moves to strengthen carbon markets and climate finance mechanisms for clean energy and adaptation keep featuring across the region.

Severe Weather Watch (South Africa): SAWS issued an Orange Level 6 warning for severe thunderstorms across the northern and eastern Free State, with flooding, damaging winds and hail possible, while Yellow Level 2 alerts cover parts of Gauteng, Mpumalanga, North West and Northern Cape. Recycling Push (Nigeria): Stakeholders at Lagos’ 5th Cycling Lagos webinar urged stronger enforcement, long-term financing, better infrastructure and behaviour change to unlock Nigeria’s recycling potential and turn waste into economic value. Heat Hits Farmers (Africa-linked supply chains): Record heat and drought forced flower farmers to pull out of UK markets, with concerns that imports—sometimes from Africa—are rising to fill gaps. Climate & Health Risk (Global, with Africa implications): A CDC-linked study says a terbinafine-resistant ringworm fungus has spread to 29 countries; researchers warn cases may be undercounted in parts of Africa due to limited testing. Mining & Communities (Brazil, Africa-relevant rights): A Brazilian court suspended environmental licenses for Sigma Lithium’s mine after a lawsuit argued inadequate consultation with quilombola communities—highlighting how consultation rules can stall projects. Biodiversity Access Gap: A new study finds many species discovered in the Global South have their key specimens stored in Europe and North America, widening research and conservation power imbalances.

Niger Delta Oil Theft: Nigeria’s Niger Delta is reeling after at least 37 people died after inhaling fumes from illegal fuel siphoning in Rivers State, highlighting how pipeline tapping fuels both deadly accidents and pollution. Severe Weather in Southern Africa: South Africa’s Gauteng faces flood risk as heavy rains and thunderstorms trigger warnings and accidents, with videos showing flooding that overwhelms public spaces. El Niño Food Pressure: Southern Africa braces for below-normal rains and hotter conditions tied to a “supersized” El Niño, with warnings that hunger could worsen sharply as food systems strain. Water Security for Business: South Africa’s water stress is now a board-level risk, as deteriorating municipal supply and water quality threaten operations and compliance. Climate Tech for Farming: Google DeepMind launches an AI-backed agriculture project using satellite mapping to help farmers boost productivity and climate resilience. Lesotho Heat and Rain Prep: Lesotho’s environment ministry warns of below-normal rainfall, intense heat, and stormy periods—urging water saving and disaster readiness. Malawi Hospital Strain: Malawi’s referral hospitals face infrastructure and service breakdowns alongside a controversial NOCMA payment tied to alleged cyber-fraud, raising accountability concerns. Kenya Sovereign Wealth Fund: Kenya’s new sovereign wealth architecture aims to turn natural-resource wealth into long-term returns, shifting debate from borrowing to building national wealth.

Severe Weather: Johannesburg and wider Gauteng were hit by a powerful storm, with uprooted trees blocking roads and a taxi crushed under a fallen tree as SAWS issued Orange Level 5 warnings for flooding, hail and damaging winds. Climate & Food Security: A “super El Niño” could worsen hunger, with forecasts warning it may push 49 million more people into food insecurity as aid funding falls short. Water Stress & Infrastructure: Civil rights groups in South Africa are urging a halt to new data centres over fears for scarce water and electricity, while Morocco’s “water motorway” plan signals a bigger push to move water between river basins. Agriculture Inputs: Morocco donated 1,000 tonnes of DAP fertilizer to Mali to support farmers facing climate-driven soil and water pressures. Digital & Innovation: Ethiopia says it is building globally competitive AI capacity via IGAD-linked regional cooperation, aiming to apply AI in agriculture, health and education. Wildlife & Health: Nigeria’s ophthalmology workforce concerns were raised as eye-care specialists migrate, and reports also highlight unsafe fruit-ripening chemicals in farming.

UN Cartography Push: The UN General Assembly adopted a new world map using the Equal Earth projection, backed by 164 countries, boosting Africa’s prominence and reducing the apparent size of North America and Europe; the US voted against it. El Niño Watch: The World Meteorological Organization warns the current El Niño could become the strongest in a thousand years, peaking by late 2026 and raising risks of droughts, heavy rains and food shocks across regions including East and southern Africa. Uganda Climate Finance: Uganda will benefit from a $200m (about Shs755bn) Africa Rural Climate Adaptation Finance Mechanism led by IFAD and Equity Group, supporting smallholders and rural businesses with irrigation, water harvesting, resilient livestock, storage and renewable energy. Health Funding Shift: Uganda is finalising a 10-year health financing strategy (2026–2036) to cut donor dependence, strengthen accountability and protect poor households from catastrophic costs. Niger Delta Oil Theft: Nigeria’s Rivers state saw at least 37 deaths after people allegedly inhaled toxic fumes during an oil theft attempt, highlighting ongoing environmental and social fallout from illegal tapping. Waste-to-Energy in Zimbabwe: President Mnangagwa witnessed an EPC deal for a waste-to-energy plant, aiming to tackle persistent refuse collection challenges. Wildlife & Safety: A bull elephant trampled a safari guide in South Africa’s Madikwe Game Reserve, underscoring risks around wildlife management. Women’s Health Funding Debate (SA): South Africa faces tough choices on financing sexual and reproductive health and rights, with concerns about whether budgets reach people and deliver outcomes.